Massive Demonstrations Across Syria

Wow.  With crowds chanting, “No to Iran, no to Hezbollah,” no less.  This is something, even more amazing to me than Egypt. Of course, we have no idea what the outcome will be.  Also we have to be fearful that Assad might initiate violence against Israel (perhaps through Hezbollah or Hamas) in order to distract attention from his own people’s anger at him.  Christians in Syria are probably very worried, because they have done relatively well with the Assad/Alawite secular Baathist regime. There’s also the possibility of a religious Sunni regime coming to power. But Assad is one of the most brutal family dictatorships around, virulent hater of all things Israel, and a close ally of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Again I recall Lenin’s quote: “Sometimes decades go by, and nothing happens. Sometimes weeks go by, and decades happen.”

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110325/wl_time/08599206136400

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/middleeast/26syria.html?_r=1&hp

Is Syria Next?

Is Syria the next country to join the freedom movement?  That would be a major breakthrough for what amounts to one of the most totalitarian states in the already totalitarian Middle East.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/world/middleeast/21syria.html?hp

Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By

Al Qaeda sees history fly by:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1&hp

European Pessimism

Here is the state of politics in Europe:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/13/guardian-icm-europe-poll-2011/print

The Shameful Treatment of Bradley Manning

We are supposed to be the land of the free.  In this case, our behavior sound more like that of a tin-pot dictatorship.  Instead of being a beacon of light to the world, we are acting shamefully.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/mar/11/bradley-manning-wikileaks

Here’s a version of a description by Manning himself:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/stripped-naked-bradley-manning-prison

Malaysia Gambles on Rare Earths and the Environment

A fascinating discussion of attempting to mine rare earths in an environmentally responsible way: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/business/energy-environment/09rare.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

Assad as Style-Setter

In what will no doubt be a future embarrasment for Vogue Magazine, its current issue profiles the lovely Asma al-Assad, the wife of Mr. Benevolent himself, Bashar al-Assad.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704506004576174623822364258.html

Gold Wars in Columbia

Old conflicts over coca morph into new ones over gold.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/world/americas/04colombia.html

Qadaffi: His Toady Supporters in the West and His Murderous Benefactors in Africa

A wonderful article, written with flair and sardonic elegance, skewering numerous, Western individuals and organizations for serving as toadies to a brutal dictator, the “loon of loons”:  http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/03/03/the-mead-list-worlds-top-ten-gaddafi-toads/

Qadaffi has apparently supported a wide array of corrupt, violent, genocidal dictators throughout Africa, as well as several dubious leaders in Central and South America:  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/04/harvard_for_tyrants?page=full

The Contentious Quest for Truffles in North Carolina

Trying to grow truffles in the US is an arduous, competitive, and uncertain business.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/us/04truffles.html?hp

How to Start a Peaceful Revolution: The Story of Gene Sharp

A wonderful story about a mild-mannered man whose ideas have inspired non-violent uprisings worldwide against dictatorships.

Tibetan Karmapa Cleared of Wrongdoing in India

A fascinating discussion of religion and politics that relates to Tibet, India, and China
http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/politics/4259/possible_heir_to_dalai_lama_cleared_of_corruption_charges/

Food and Farming Problems in India

India is having serious problems in feeding its own people.  This article touches both on weather changes (global warming) and on modern farming technology.  (via Nelson French)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/business/global/12food.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha25

Arab Antisemitism and Yusuf al-Qaradawi

This is an excellent primer on Yusuf al-Qaradawi.
http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e138.htm

Also an essay on Arab antisemitism by Richard Cohen
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022805199.html

In the meantime, Hamas resists letting the UN include the holocaust in its human rights curriculum
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/28/hamas-un-holocaust-lessons-gaza

Saudi Arabia and Revolution

The situation is ripe for change in Saudi Arabia, but the country could end up divided between young, tech-savvy, democratic secularists, anti-democratic Wahabi Islamists, and restless Shiites:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/28/yes_it_could_happen_here

The Egyptian Revolution on Twitter

This is cool to watch:  http://gephi.org/2011/the-egyptian-revolution-on-twitter/ (via Dianne Bazell)

Alan Dershowitz on Obama’s Veto of UN Security Council Resolution

This is a good analysis that also illustrates the complexity of the settlement issue.  The old Jewish quarter of East Jerusalem is not a settlement, and the Palestinians have agreed in principle that Maale Adumim and Gilo will become part of Israel proper in a negotiated peace treaty.  There are other security-related reasons for keeping certain settlements as part of Israel.    Now that does not mean that Israeli settlement policy has not been deeply flawed–it has.  But one-sided resolutions and essays that treat all Jewish presence in Jerusalem and the West Bank as evil are ahistorical, incorrect, and harmful to our hopes for peace.

http://www.hudson-ny.org/1909/obama-was-right-to-veto-the-security-council

Democracy, the Middle East and Israel

The US and the West are essentially tourists in the Middle East, while Israelis are residents:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/charlesmoore/8348516/Libya-What-happens-after-we-stop-watching-these-revolutions-against-Col-Gaddafi.html

Conservative Fouad Adjami has faith in Arab democratic movements and their implications for Israel
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/mideast-unrest-is-a-change-the-world-should-believe-in-scholar-says-1.345607

Also the road to democracy is long.  Democracy is not an election or majority rule, but many elections, tolerance for minority rights, and the growth of democratic institutions
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-long-road-to-democracy-1.345581

Conservative Daniel Pipes is optimistic about democracy:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/260923/my-optimism-new-arab-revolt-daniel-pipes

I don’t agree with this negative analysis, but it’s worth paying attention to. Benny Morris could well be correct, at least in the short term.  In the long run, I still bet on freedom.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/losing-middle-east-4921

Kevin Myers also has doubts about the possibility of true democracy in the Middle East:
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/kevin-myers-little-hope-of-democracy-as-arab-despots-overthrown-2549977.html

Tzipi Livni advocates a code for democracies:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022305364.html

In Gaza, Islamist Hamas restricts the rights of secular individuals and groups, which are the cornerstone of a democratic society: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022500824.html

In this interesting piece, Nick Cohen argues that Europe’s obsession with Israel has promoted dictatorships in the Middle East: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/27/nick-cohen-arab-middle-east-conflict

Robert Kaplan argues that democracy will be more about the establishment of authority than the restraint of it and that Turkey will have substantial influence as it did in the Ottoman period:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022506229.html

I recall the peaceful nature of the demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia.  Even Libya was initially peaceful, but the protesters had to defend themselves when Qaddafi started massacring them.  This bodes well, and I remain optimistic in the longer-term (10-15 years).

The Islamist Role in Egyptian Politics

This is an analysis of the possible popularity of Islamist parties in Egypt.  The Muslim Brotherhood is only one such party, and the Islamist movement in Egypt is far from monolithic:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022701272.html

Support for Israel Remains Strong in U.S.

Obviously this is good news for the Jewish community and for US support of Israel.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146408/Americans-Maintain-Broad-Support-Israel.aspx

Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Yusuf al-Qaradawi

Relations between the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are close, as this article indicates.  And now Hamas has invited one of the charismatic leaders of the Brotherhood to Gaza, Yusuf al-Qaradawi.  Egyptian Qaradawi has frequently called for jihad against Israel and Jews, the destruction of Israel, and has said that he himself looks forward to coming to Israel to personally shoot Jews.

http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e137.htm

For more on Qaradawi and his hatred of Jews, see the following:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/02/sheikh-qaradawi-seeks-total-war/71626/

http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=2&x_outlet=35&x_article=2000 (this discusses not only Qaradawi’s anti-semitism, his love for Hitler and his hopes for another even more successful Jewish holocaust, but also his support for female genital mutilation and wife beating, suicide killers, the fatwa ordering the murder of Salman Rushdie, the execution of apostates, and laws treating religious minorities differently.  The author emphasizes the whitewashing of Muslim Brotherhood hatred and violence in the New York Times.

Palestinian Youth Seek to End Gaza and West Bank Schism

This does not bode well for Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.   There are also deep conflicts between Islamist Hamas and secular PLO/Fatah.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25ramallah.html?hp

Lara Logan and the Treatment of Women in Egypt

Why does the Western left rip Israel, but go silent on the treatment of women, minorities, and gays in Muslim countries?

The statistics are stunning:  about 35% of Egyptian wives report having experienced violence from their husbands. over 80% of Egyptian women have experienced sexual harassment, and over 50% of Egyptian women have been molested (many wearing modest Islamic dress).  And this just refers to reported incidents:  unreported incidents are likely to make the actual totals far higher:

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2011/02/20/no_rights_for_women_no_freedom_in_a_nation/

And over 90% of Egyptian women from 15-49 have undergone genital mutilation: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/evelyn-leopold/female-circumcism—-90-p_b_822283.html

This does not mean that there are not wonderful things about Muslim cultures, but it means that we have to examine them honestly.  It also means that blanket criticism of Israel (without corresponding critiques of neighboring societies). is unwarranted and unjust.

Israel’s Relations with Egypt

A discussion of Egyptian-Israeli relations.  A good analysis.
http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3312

Turkey as Regional Muslim Power

Turkey is growing in influence in the Middle East because of its closeness to the Muslim Brotherhood:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=arab-revolt-makes-turkey-a-regional-power-2011-02-16

Iran Republican Guard Not To Participate in Crackdown

Iran’s Republican Guard is sending out signals that it will not participate in crackdowns on protesters:  a very positive development if true.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_revo_guard_skips_crackdown_YtzutLv7pAzzVHZqZWVX7I

Major Setback at Iranian Nuclear Plant

This is significant news, suggesting that Iran may lack technical nuclear competency and that the tech attacks may well have had significant impact.  It provides more time for peaceful change in the Middle East

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/middleeast/26nuke.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

Syria’s Nuclear Plans

More evidence has emerged of Syria’s nuclear facilities, which Israel destroyed.  What Israel did here prevented a catastrophe.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703842004576163082774601552.html?mod=rss_middle_east_news

At the same time, Syria seems to have more nuclear plans:

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-shows-suspected-uranium-conversion-plant-in-syria1/

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=209812

Iran Republican Guard Not To Participate in Crackdown

Iran’s Republican Guard is sending out signals that it will not participate in crackdowns on protesters:  a very positive development if true.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_revo_guard_skips_crackdown_YtzutLv7pAzzVHZqZWVX7I

Cairo and Madison: Common Dreams

Cairo and Madison share a common dream:  http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/02/21-11

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Internal Divisions

The Muslim Brotherhood is not monolithic, and it may receive less support when it is not the only alternative.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/21/AR2011022102498.html

al-Qaradawi Returns to Egypt and Publicly Attacks Israel

This is a danger that the Egyptian democratic movement must confront clearly and courageously.

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=209102

Tunisia: Islamists Demonstrate Against Jews

This is the other side of Middle Eastern protests and freedom movements:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQHdxYDTH_Y
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4030359,00.html

Egypt Able to Use Internet Cut-Off Switch

I wonder if the U.S. has such a capacity.  Hmm . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/technology/16internet.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

“Abbas’s Intifada: Isolating Israel and Unilateral Steps”

The strategy of Abbas is not violence, but the diplomatic isolation of Israel and the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state, with borders and parameters not to be determined by negotiation, but by fiat.

http://www.hudson-ny.org/1899/abbas-intifada

British Trade Union Movement, Israel, and Boycotts

The British Trade Union Movement has been co-opted by anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian activists, committed to ending the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.

http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=3&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=624&PID=0&IID=6082&TTL=The_British_Trade_Union_Movement,_Israel,_and_Boycotts

Israel Transit Ads War on US Buses

This reflects increasing polarization in our country and more aggressive anti-Israel campaigning.

http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/02/08/2742900/battle-over-mideast-transit-ads-heating-up-across-the-country

Another Thought on Israel-Palestinian Peace Negotiations

Recently a New York times articles explained how close Israel and the Palestinian Authority were to completing a peace treaty under Israel’s Prime Minister Olmert.  Upon further reflection, I have some doubts.  It is in the interests of both Abbas and Olmert to exaggerate the proximity of a deal.  Olmert wants to contrast himself  with Netanyahu and present himself as great Israeli leader.  Abbas wants the West to think how great he is for giving up so much to the Israelis.

But the question is twofold:  Is Abbas ready to give up the right of return for millions of Palestinians (which is the only way for Israel to remain a Jewish state), to reject the demands of militant members of Fatah,  to accept Israeli authority over some Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, to acknowledge that Jews have some rights on the Temple Mount (which is also the location of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock), and to stop engaging in antisemitic rhetoric, particularly in its schools?  Is Israel ready to take a risk on a Palestinian Authority that has had a history of corruption and not following through on its commitments, to remove settlers who may well respond violently against the Israeli military, to remove its authority from sites and places that have a centuries-long Jewish presence, to surrender military and security advantages, and to allow East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital?

I am not sure that either side is prepared to act at this time.  The biggest challenge for both will be the militant, violent opponents of peace and reconciliation:  some Jewish settlers, as well as  militant members of Fatah and Islamist Hamas.  I don’t believe that either Israel or the PA has confidence in taking that risk without substantial support from the U.S.  And even with it, the Palestinians may need to continue their economic and political development to a point where Palestinian political leaders can face down militant ideologies and where Israel can have confidence and trust in taking a substantial risk– both internally with some potentially violent settlers and externally with a group that has historically hated Israel and wished to annihilate it.

Still everyone knows the outlines of a deal.  While the recent tectonic shifts in the Middle East could usher in a period of instability and tension, they also have a real possibility of producing authentic democratic, free societies, capable of dealing with a Jewish state.  This could therefore be a time out of which a meaningful agreement might emerge.  We shall see.

http://mysticscholar.org/2011/02/11/israel-palestinian-peace-treaty-so-close/

Protests Spreading Beyond Middle East–to China and Zimbabwe

Freedom is a global movement that has moved beyond the Middle East to China and Zimbabwe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/asia/21china.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/africa/22zimbabwe.html?hp

Iran’s Nuclear Mining Deals with Ecuador and Venezuela

Iran attempts to gain access to uranium in South America.

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/15/irans_man_in_ecuador

« Previous Entries Next Entries »