“Maybe this is the Moment to Put Our Trust in Freedom”: Natan Sharanksy

I stand with Sharansky.  Freedom is the only real hope for peace.  In the end, if we support dictatorships against democratic movements, we will alienate the vast majority of Arab/Muslim populations, and we will give them only one option:  the Muslim Brotherhood.  A truly democratic society, not only with elections, but with independent institutions and the capacity to pursue whatever wants to pursue (i.e. freedom), sounds the death knell for extremist, violent, backward-looking, tyrannical, theocratic religious movements.  Freedom is also what the U.S., Israel, and other democracies are supposed to stand for.  Of course, failure is possible, but the risk is worth it:  http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Article.aspx?id=207745

See also the excellent article by Jackson Diehl on the upsides of Egypt’s revolution
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021200483.html

Egypt’s Khomeini

I don’t see an Iranian-style revolution as happening, especially given the strong secular culture in Egypt, the existence of many Muslims who support democracy, the antipathy of many Egyptians for Iran, the role of the army, and the educated techie youth generation.  But it’s something to pay attention to and will probably produce some major bumps in the road.

http://www.tabletmag.com/news-and-politics/58461/jewel-of-the-nile/

Here’s also an excellent, clear-eyed summary of the Muslim Brotherhood:  http://www.hudson-ny.org/1882/muslim-brotherhood-reality

CIA: Mistakes Lead to Promotions Anyway

Pretty much sounds like most institutions (private and public)  in our country.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/09/AR2011020902119.html (now archived)

See now: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-02-09-cia-promotions-errors_N.htm or

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/09/at-cia-grave-mistakes-led_n_820627.html

New Egyptian Poll from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Very interesting.  Only 15% approve of the Muslim Brotherhood, while a mere 1% would support a Muslim Brotherhood candidate.  Elbaradei has very little popular support, unlike Amr Mousa.  Even more surprising, a plurality of Egyptians support the peace treaty with Israel (37% pro vs. 27%  con).  All in all, this is good news.

http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC11.php?CID=543

Torture by Egyptian Mukhabarat

A window into horror:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/09/egypt-torture-machine-mubarak-security

Israel-Palestinian Peace Treaty So Close

So agonizingly close–still.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/magazine/13Israel-t.html?pagewanted=1&hp

“How Google Removed the Muzzle on Twitter”

On the adaptability and flexibility of technology.  That makes it so much more powerful

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_tec_egypt_google_twitter_tool

Now see: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20110204/us-tec-egypt-google-twitter-tool/

Egypt and Crony Capitalism

Of course, this is far from a free market–when the government picks and chooses the economic winners among its allies and friends.   It’s yet another example of government by the few for the few.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/world/middleeast/07corruption.html?hpw

Wael Ghonim’s Television Interview

This is a moving interview that provides insights both into the thinking of the protesters and of the government.  The interview speaks for itself and shows the profound integrity of everyday Egyptians.  I am struck by the deep concern for dignity that Wael consistently mentions.  There is a sense among Egyptians that this government has shamed them and treated them as children.  Young protesters like Wael are educated, cosmopolitan, entrepreneurial, thoughtful, and modern.  They are the future leaders of Egypt and other Middle Eastern nations.  While there are many perils and chances for disasters, Wael and his colleagues should give us all reason to hope for greater peace and prosperity in the Middle East in the long term.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/subtitled-video-of-wael-ghonims-emotional-tv-interview/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09ghonim.html?hp

Food Speculators (Banks) Have Driven Up Commodity Prices, Fueling Hunger and Poverty

This is illuminating.  Bank speculators not only caused the crisis in the US and Europe through dubious housing deals, but they have sparked unrest all over the world, now in Tunisia and Egypt, by artificially ginning up the commodities markets.  Blessings, Larry

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/egyptian_tinderbox.php

Google Exec, Wael Ghonim, Released in Egypt

In the end, you can imprison a person, but you cannot lock up the internet or social media. Egypt’s attempt to control the spread of protest by arresting social media entrepreneurs did not succeed.  However, we can sure see where the real power is now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/world/middleeast/08google.html

Slaughtering and Torturing Dolphins in Taijii, Japan

If you are squeamish, please do not watch this video.  It is hard and painful to see.

The slaughtering and torture of dolphins is a tradition that no longer makes any sense.  Dolphins (and whales) are highly intelligent, sophisticated, relational sea mammals.  In Greek tradition, dolphins were sacred and viewed as friends of humans.  This video and others have brought attention to a horrible practice that we need to stop not only because of its violence and the slow, painful deaths of dolphins, but because it degrades our own moral conscience as human beings.

Blessings,
Larry

http://www.youtube.com/user/delfinusdelphis#p/a/u/0/dY2Fd9eQGZE

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/14/dolphin-slaughter-hunting-japan-taiji (an article that summarizes the practice in Taijii)

http://www.savejapandolphins.org/

A Petition To Endorse The Statement of 41 Nobel Laureates on the Issue of Academic Boycotts Divestments and Sanctions (Scholars for Peace in the Middle East)

If you are opposed to academic boycotts and divestment (now frequently aimed at Israel) , please forward this to anyone you think might be interested.

http://www.spme.net/cgi-bin/display_petitions.cgi?ID=21
http://spme.net/cgi-bin/display_petitions.cgi?ID=9&Action=View

Al-Jazeera and a Free Press

http://www.thenation.com/blog/158183/washington-embraces-al-jazeera

This is an excellent discussion of Al-Jazeera and its crucial role in the Middle East.  The Bush administration hated Al-Jazeera when it did reporting that was not supportive of US policy in Iraq, and it went after their reporters.  Of course, presidential administrations in the past have not liked a lot of US media either and have targeted them as well.  Now we see the essential importance of an active, free press, and the current US government finally embraces it.  Democracy and freedom depend upon it.  The more openness and transparency that a truly free press demands, the greater the chance for truly humane, compassionate societies to evolve.  Ironic that it took an Arabic-language news organization to show us this.

US Conservatives Split on Democracy in Egypt

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-01/glenn-becks-egypt-freakout-how-the-uprising-splits-us-conservatives/

Very interesting.  I don’t think Michelle Goldberg is correct on Israel–that they are opposed to democracy in the Middle East because Israel has found it easier to deal with dictators and because stability trumps freedom.  Yes, there are many Israelis who take this position.  But in general Israelis are divided between those who believe that democracy will ultimately promote peace in region and those who fear that calls for democracy will lead to Islamic dictatorships and instability.  Of course, Israelis have good reason to more anxious than us.  They have violence and the threat of annihilation at their doorstep.  Nevertheless, Israelis have a diversity of views on this, especially because of their own democratic traditions.

As for myself, I am deeply Jewish and Zionist.  As a Jew and a Zionist, I support the aspirations of all people for freedom, no matter where they are.  How can I not do so?  That includes Egyptians, Iranians, and anyone else. I strongly believe that free, open, democratic societies are not only a human right and a step forward in human consciousness,  but are a gateway to peace and reconciliation in the long run.  No doubt there will be short- and mid-term challenges, but democratic societies are much less likely to engage in war with their neighbors, and that includes the Middle East.

By the way, I know that there are Egyptians who are worried about the image of their society in the world.  I realize you are concerned about chaos, violence, and instability and the negative image that the world will see.  My comments may not carry much weight with you, but as a Jew and a supporter of Israel, I am deeply moved by these demonstrations.  I see nobility, honor, courage, and dignity.  The chaos is not the fault of Egyptians, but the fault of a government that has lost its legitimacy.  I have always been impressed by Egypt, its culture, and its magnificent, rich, long history.  The events of recent days have only served to increase my admiration and respect.  I keep the Egyptian people in my prayers every day.

Change in Egypt and US Foreign Policy

This article is superb: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/opinion/31douthat.html

There is a kind of imperialistic arrogance that exists in the U.S. on both the left and the right.  Each side criticizes the other for allegedly allowing some international event or crisis to take place: “If only the U.S. had done things our way, not yours, then all would have turned out well.”

Yet the reality is different.  We have much less control of events than we think.  The U.S. cannot determine what others do, especially when social media and internet technology allow open information flow.  We need to take a more humble approach to foreign policy and stop assuming that we are omnipotent.

Here is the link to my original comment at the New York Times:  http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/opinion/31douthat.html?sort=oldest

Israel, Iran, and the Stuxnet Worm

This is certainly better than a military attack or a war.  Of course, the same technology can be used for more nefarious purposes, and there’s the rub.  Still I prefer it done this way.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html?_r=2

Then again, here’s another piece arguing that that the US and/or Israel did not design this worm and that its effect is much more minimal than what has been reported:

http://blogs.forbes.com/jeffreycarr/2011/01/17/the-new-york-times-fails-to-deliver-stuxnets-creators/

Ivory Coast on the Brink of Genocide

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/30/ivory-coast-brink-genocide-election-crisis

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110102/ap_on_re_af/af_ivory_coast

Now is the time to act to stop genocide before it happens in the Ivory Coast. Use conversations, talks and sermons, emails, and blogs to stop potential horror.

The World Needs Healthy USA

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/opinion/15friedman.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a212

Tom Friedman discusses the importance of US stability and health to the world (via Nelson French).

Cutting Languages in Universities

More on language study in universities: http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2010/12/06/27110/.  See my blog post from yesterday: http://mysticscholar.org/2010/12/05/cutting-languages-in-universities/

Cutting Languages in Universities

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/education/05languages.html?hp

This is exactly the wrong direction that universities are taking.  In a time when globalism is the watchword, how can universities cut language study?  Doing so is obviously parochial and short-sighted. French, which is at the chopping block in many places, is the only language spoken on every continent, 119 million people speak it as their mother language, another 65 million are partly French speakers, and there are over 56 Francophone states and governments. Of course, other languages such as German, Italian, Greek, and Latin are essential for understanding who we are as human beings in the West. People who study these languages are much more likely to study other languages (Chinese, Hindi, Arabic, etc.) and be able to operate in a global environment.”

Judaism in Indonesia

Judaism thrives in a sliver of Indonesia: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/world/asia/23indo.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

Chile’s Lessons in Leadership

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/opinion/21iht-edsachs.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

“A visit to Chile finds a flourishing and rising country that has learned valuable lessons from a bitter past.”

Tibet Photos 100 Years Ago

http://www.npr.org/blogs/pictureshow/2010/10/04/130328968/tibet

“Contemporary Tibet conjures a mysterious mental image. So imagine how much more mysterious it was 100 years ago when travel was difficult and few foreigners were granted entry. A rare photo album provides a glimpse of that cloistered culture.”

Neturei Karta

This is from an email I wrote to a friend about some photos depicting clearly ultra-orthodox Jews happily meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadenijad, the President of Iran.

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Photos like these are actually pretty well known. Most ultra-Orthodox or Haredi (whether Hasidic, followers of the Lithuanian Yeshivah tradition, or Sephardic) have always opposed Zionism and the secular Jewish state, but they do not support harm coming to Jews.  Many of these have by now compromised (such as Agudat Israel and Shas and Hasidic groups such as Lubavitch), working with the Israeli state even though they oppose it in principle.  Among the Haredi, however, there is a particularly fanatic, right-wing group who goes beyond their opposition to the state of Israel by advocating for Israel’s destruction and who support violence against Israelis and against Jews who actively support the state of Israel.  They actually virulently oppose other Haredi who work with the Israeli state, back Ahmadenijad, give credence to Ahmadenijad’s holocaust denial (in part because they believe that many of the Jews murdered in the holocaust were not “real” Jews), and embrace Ahmadenijad’s threats of violence against Israel.  The group is called Neturei Karta (“Guardians of the City”), whose members live in various places around the world, most notably in  Meah Shearim in Jerusalem. Ahmadenijad has been photographed with them before.  See the following links:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/nyregion/15rabbi.html?fta=y
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neturei_Karta

Neturei Karta is radically isolated and cultish, the most extreme of the extreme.  In short, they’re crazy.

P.S. There is an Israeli film called “Kadosh,” which gives a glimpse at the lives of ultra-Orthodox groups like Neturei Karta in Meah Shearim.

Boycotts, Divestment, and the One-State Solution

The movement to boycott and divest from Israel wants a one-state solution, while also opposing cooperation and negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnpilMYsR0I

The World’s Happiest Countries

http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/14/world-happiest-countries-lifestyle-realestate-gallup-table.html
Very interesting. Quick observations: 1) The top countries are almost all wealthy; 2) Scandinavians seem really happy (in spite of the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo); 3) Costa Rica is not wealthy, but stands at no. 6, probably because of its emphasis on quality of life and tight social networks; 4) In spite of the stresses of violence and war, Israel comes in high at no. 8; 5) in spite of its wealth, the US is only at no. 14; 6) Bulgaria is the unhappiest European country; 7) France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are not high up, and the United Kingdom and Ireland are not so great. 7) Brazil and Panama are relatively highly placed; 8) Africa is very unhappy; 9) the happiest Asian countries are in the Middle East or Central Asia, not in South Asia or the Far East; 10) How is Turkmenistan almost as happy as the US.

Israeli Internal Religious Conflict

If ever the Palestinians and Israelis get it together, this will become the big issue in Israel:  progressive and secular Jews vs. the Ultra-Orthodox. Israel is only 20% Orthodox, and many of them are not Ultra-Orthodox.  E.g. Shimon Peres is Orthodox, and he’s no fan of the ultra-religious and their parties.  About 15 years ago, everyone predicted that the Ultra-Orthodx would grow substantially in numbers, but that has not happened, as many children of Ultra-Orthodox families are influenced by the broader global culture (as many of the youth are in Iran) and do not stay within the fold.  The Palestinian conflict helps the Ultra-Orthodox, since it divides everybody else.  In the long run, I don’t think that the Ultra-Orthodox can win, because the numbers are not on their side and because this is not the direction of human culture.  Time is on our side.

Oskar Schindler Museum

http://jta.org/news/article/2010/06/09/2739531/exhibit-at-schindler-factory-site-recalls-nazi-era-krakow
Krakow (Poland) opens Oskar Schindler Museum at site of his factory.

The Flotilla Incident and My Frustration with Israel

Israel clearly has the right to defend itself by maintaining the blockade against a country whose government is committed to annihilating it, and Israeli soldiers were confronted with a violent response on at least one of the ships.

I still find this situation demoralizing and depressing.  How come Israel was not better prepared to handle the flotilla?  Israel is supposed to have the best military and the most sophisticated counter-insurgency techniques.  It sure did not look like that here.  When the commandos descended on to the Turkish ship, they looked like sitting ducks for a an angry mob.  How could the Israeli military have so badly misjudged this situation, putting their own soldiers at risk and giving the anti-Israel crowd an enormous PR victory?  The flotilla organizers were not about giving aid to Gaza.  They want to break the Israeli blockade and move public opinion against Israel.  They may not have broken the Gaza blockade (yet), but they succeeded in turning world opinion against Israel, its supporters, and the global Jewish community once again.  Israel looks like a bull in a china closet and is finding itself increasingly isolated.  From a PR point of view, the flotilla was a great victory for those who want to destroy Israel.

No matter what the legitimate justifications for Israel’s actions, they don’t matter in the end.  What matters is public perception as filtered through the media and the internet.  Pro-Palestinian activists understand this.  The Israelis and their supporters seem clueless.  While Israel takes a reactive posture, focusing on tactics in individual incidents (and the tactics were a failure here, a screw-up by the military), the pro-Palestinian activists take a longer, strategic view of turning the world against Israel (and Jews).

When will Israel and its supporters learn to use the media and the internet to their advantage?  When will Israel act pro-actively and cultivate a strategy that looks at their long-term interests?  If events keep piling up in this form, Israel will find itself in an untenable position.  For its sake and our sake, I hope somebody gets the message.

Copernicus Reburied

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=10719548
A moving story, at least for me. A scientific hero, Copernicus (who proved that the earth and other planets orbit the sun), finally gets his due.

Finland’s 100,000 Year-Plan to Banish Its Nuclear Waste

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/science/11nuclear.html

“Onkalo, a tunnel that will hold spent fuel rods 1,600 feet under bedrock in Eurajoki, Finland, is the subject of the documentary ‘Into Eternity.'”

A Tiny Apartment Transforms into 24 Rooms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg9qnWg9kak&feature=player_embedded

“In Hong Kong, because of the space, apartments are small and expensive. Gary Chang, an architect, decided to design a 344 sq. ft. apartment to be able to change into 24 different designs, all by just sliding panels and walls. …”

Noam Chomsky and Israel

I wrote the following to a friend when he sent me an article by Noam Chomsky from Salon: http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2010/04/27/chomsky_middle_east/index.html?source=newsletter

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Chomsky claims he is a Zionist, but does not really support the idea of a Jewish state or of a two-solution (even though he implies that he does here and elsewhere–he’s not serious and calls it temporary).  He does not take seriously into account Arab anti-semitism and Arab views of Jews over the decades or, even more important, the Arab commitment to annihilating Israel.  He neglects to mention that Israel came to occupy the West Bank in 1967, because every surrounding country was on the verge of a massive attack against Israel motivated by the desire to drive “Israel into the sea.”  What was Israel supposed to do?  Allow themselves to be slaughtered to feed the egos of those who do not believe that Jews have a right to defend themselves?  The goal of annihilating Israel and Jews still remains for many, obviously for Hamas, but even in the PLO and in many Arab societies, as well as the Iranian government.

How do you have a peace agreement when the majority of the peoples around you wish to destroy your country and slaughter or deport your citizens?  How do you have a peace agreement with a government which does not demonstrate a commitment to a democratic, non-corrupt, free society?  How do you have a peace agreement with a government that does not demonstrate even the most rudimentary capacity to run an orderly society?

Chomsky also claims in many of his interviews and writing that antisemitism no longer exists in any meaningful form.  That’s nice for him.  I don’t know what reality he lives in, but it’s not one I’m familiar with.  Perhaps he should take a look at what it’s like to be Jewish in France or Britain or Venezuela.  Or he might take a look at FBI religious hate crime stats in the US, which show that in 2007 69.2% of religious hate crimes are against Jews while 8.7% are of an anti-Islamic bias (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/hc2007/victims.htm).  Chomsky is a well-to-do, successful, academic in a highly privileged institution who has no clue what it’s currently like to be Jewish in other settings, including the Middle East.

The real reason that Chomsky opposes Israel is that he is at heart an anarchist and does not really believe that states should exist in the first place–certainly not a Jewish state.  That’s nice for those who live in La La land.  I am certainly no backer of nation states and believe that they are on their way out as governing entities.  But I’m not so silly as to believe that we don’t need government and authority of some kind.

It’s sad that Salon would feature someone like Chomsky who is not taken seriously in the Jewish community, even on the left.  There are many others who could critique Israeli policies and offer a progressive vision of the Middle East.  Featuring Chomsky, an anarchist, does not encourage discussion or debate.  It shuts it down.

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By the way, I’m not joking when I call Chomsky an anarchist.   He really is a self-proclaimed anarchist.  He has written extensively on the topic, including a book.  My best guess (and it’s only a guess) is that a lot of his strong opposition to Israel stems from his own Jewish identity and his anarchism.  As a Jew, he is especially opposed to Zionism and Jewish statehood, because the very concept of statehood is anathema to him.

But, in the real world today, with the way people live and act, the possibility of anarchism is a fantasy.  It bears a lot of resemblance to radical libertarianism, which comes from the opposite end of the ideological spectrum.

Africa as the New Asia

Africa is becoming the new China and India.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/02/18/how-africa-is-becoming-the-new-asia.html

Film Review: “Green Zone”

I recommend the film, “Green Zone.” It has flown under the radar for some reason, but Matt Damon does an excellent job, as does the rest of the cast. With the same pacing as the Bourne films (also directed by Paul Greengrass), Green Zone is sometimes hard to follow, but it is always exciting and interesting. It takes the point of view (probably now a consensus) that Iraq had ended the WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction program) in 1991 and that the US knew that, but went into Iraq for other reasons. The main character, Warrant Officer Roy Miller (US Special Forces), commands a squad given the task of locating the WMD’s, but he soon realizes that there are no WMD’s. Much of the plot centers on whether the US should incorporate the Baath (Sadaam Hussein’s party) political and military leaders into the governance of the country.

The film represents a number of different points of view. Baath Sunni General Al Rawi (Yigal Naor) seeks to make a deal with the US; Freddy (Khalid Abdallah), who knows the lay of the land and serves as Miller’s translator, is a Shia Iraq-Iran war veteran who lost a leg and who harbors deep anger toward the Baath leaders; Clark Poundstone (Greg Kinnear) is a state department official who wants to destroy the Baath and kill as many of them as possible in order to install those whom the US favors; Poundstone backs Shia Ahmed Zubadi (Raad Rawi, presumably an allusion to Ahmed Chalabi whom the US probably thought it could install as leader of Iraq), but Zubadi has little support among Iraqis; Martin Brown (Brendan Gleeson) is a CIA agent who apparently supported the Iraq war, knew that the US lied about WMD’s, and wants to make a deal with the Baath; and Lawrie Dane (Amy Ryan) is a Wall Street Journal reporter who wrote stories on the Iraqi WMD that lent support to the US invasion of Iraq.

For an action film, there is a lot of subtle commentary, with different points of view presented on whether the US should have allowed the Baath into the governance of the country. Most action films do not show the complexity of real-life contexts, but this does so with flair. General Al Rawi is an intimidating charismatic leader who wants to make a deal. His physical presence in the film oozes suppressed rage and violence that could explode under the right circumstances. Both Freddy and Martin Brown expose the naivete of Miller. Freddy’s wounds and suffering give him credibility and moral force, as encapsulated by his words to Miller: “it’s not for you to decide what happens in Iraq.” Brown was well aware of the US deceit and lies from the outset, but has a realistic understanding of what could work in Iraq. Poundstone is an oily power-grubbing political climber who has no clue about Iraq and only cares about his own advancement. Zubadi is a lackey. Lawrie Dane is a dupe. And Roy Miller is caught in a web which he only begins to understand at the end of the film.

Green Zone’s depiction of the chaos of Iraq and the hellish environment in which soldiers operate attempts to give viewers a picture of events from the point of view of soldiers and Iraqis. Green Zone clearly takes the position that were no WMD’s in Iraq and that the US knew that, but it also leaves open the question as to whether the US should have invaded Iraq and whether it should have incorporated the Baath leaders into the governing structure of the country. The film intimates that, if the US had incorporated the Baath into the new Iraqi political system, one of the goals of the invasion might have come to fruition more quickly: an inclusive, democratic Iraq that could serve as a political model for the Middle East. But obviously there were those with other ideas, including both Americans and Iraqis.

The film does not give easy answers, and that’s what makes it special.

Converting Trash to Clean Energy in Europe

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/science/earth/13trash.html

Japanese Fiddler on the Roof

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGoRo-nPLOM

Now for something different and fun (via Dianne Bazell): Fiddler on the Roof in Japanese. It seems that the Japanese have a real affinity for this story dealing with the tension between tradition and change

Healing Rifts Between Poland and Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/world/europe/13poland.html

More on the theme of reconciliation: Here Poland and Russia

Two Very Different Views of Iran and the Middle East

Here are two very different views of Iran and the Middle East:

1)  The first is from a conservative blog and discusses a book written by an Iranian, Reza Khalili, a CIA spy who was a member of the Revolutionary Guard of Iran.  He is convinced that either the US (the preferred option) or Israel must attack Iran and that the Iranian people are hoping for such an attack.  It is important to note that he does NOT advocate an invasion, but rather an attack on the Revolutionary Guard.  He also points out that most Iranians essentially love the US and are not unfriendly to Israel.  He opposes an invasion, because NOBODY wants their nation invaded.  He is of the opinion that Iranians cannot stand the current government, but they have no power to overthrow it.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/

2) The second is by a left-wing Israeli journalist, Uri Avneri.  He is of the view that there is very little the US or Israel will or can do about Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons.  Israel’s and Jews’ connection to Iran goes back several thousand years, and the positive relationship cannot be preempted by the group of crazies that now run the country.  The effect of an attack by Israel would shut down the world economy, and the US will never allow Israel to do that.  And, given Iraq and Afghanistan and the US’s own economic woes, the US is in no position to attack either.  Obama is pushing Israel on East Jerusalem, because he wants Israel to make a choice between its building policy in the Jerusalem environs and a strong sanctions policy against Iran led by the US.  If Israel pursues its current settlement policy, then the US will not pursue the sanctions.  This is the choice that the US is presenting Israel.

http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1270319001/

At for the Khalili interview, I am not sure that an attack on Iran, which would include both the nuclear sites and the revolutionary guards without an invasion, would lead to the overthrow of the current government.  There’s a lot of wishful thinking there, and I don’t necessarily buy that.   It’s possible, but, even if the current government falls, the new government will very likely pursue nuclear weapons, although it will take them longer if the nuclear sites are destroyed.  Khalili is no doubt correct about an invasion and the long-term negative impact of such an approach.   Yet even a targeted attack on the Republican Guard and the nuclear sites could produce a understandably self-protective reaction on the part of a broad cross-section of the Iranian people.  You might hate your oppressive government, but you don’t want foreigners to do your own work for you.  That just makes people angry.  I do believe that Khalili is correct about the religious views of the Iranian leaders–that they believe that the use of nuclear weapons will initiate the public return of the twelfth mahdi and a worldwide victory for Islam.  Many in the West find this hard to imagine, but all we have to do is listen to late night radio and hear what many in the conservative Christian community believe.  It’s pretty much the same thing, with victory coming to Christ and Christians instead of the Mahdi and Muslims.  We should take very seriously the religious views of Iranian leaders, because they actually believe what they say.

The second piece is correct in its analysis of the US view of the Jerusalem situation.  I believe that the Obama administration and many US foreign policy analysts (including those from a variety of prior administrations) believe that progress on the Israel-Palestinian conflict will give the US more leverage in dealing with Iran.  Whether this is actually true or not is another matter (whatever the merits or flaws in the Obama admin’s position on settlements).  Arab governments are terrified of Iran regardless of Israel, and progress on Israel-Palestine will likely not change the behavior of the Iranian government and of those who fear it.  The Middle East is much more complex than Israel-Palestine, and the US should not be fixated on that as some kind of cure-all.  It might buy some time, but that will end quickly.   We are dealing with governments in the Middle East that, except for Israel, are, for the most part, corrupt dictatorships (often despised by their own people, as in Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia), and that makes the situation volatile no matter what happens with the Palestinians (For Arab countries, see most recently the democracy report card of the Arab Reform Initiative:   http://arab-reform.net/IMG/pdf/annual_rep_010_english.pdf , where Palestine, by the way, scores rather low).

This is a very difficult environment.  I have no idea what the solution is.  My own sense is that Israel will attack if it appears that Iran will obtain nuclear weapons, even if the US opposes such a move.  This could have profound consequences for the US-Israel relationship and, of course, for Israel.   That is why Israel has spent a lot of time cultivating its relationship with both India and China, both economically and militarily.  In the end, this is an existential question for Israelis.  Given the holocaust and the near decimation of world Jewry, Israel is acutely aware of what the consequences of Iranian nuclear weapons would be.  Israelis will take enormous risks to prevent that from happening.  The best possibility right now might be the continuation of covert operations to slow down Iranian progress on the nuclear front, but that can only work for so long.  The effectiveness of sanctions is doubtful.

In reality, no one has a clear answer.  The best approach is for those of us are observers to try to understand the complexity of the dynamics at play and the different points of view of the people and nations involved.  At the same time, any kind of open dialogue is preferable.  This is a time when the lines of communication need to be open and when people of different backgrounds need to be talking with one another, even if there is very little apparent progress and even if they are not talking about the Middle East.  Sometimes just talking about gardening or sports builds the foundation for real understanding.  And I know that this may sound pollyannish, but we need prayer and meditation to surround this region with imagery of peace and light.

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